Abstract: n terms of uncertain Emergency Group Decision-Making(EGDM),a novel EGDM model considering the conflicts of Decision Makers(DMs)' opinions and the correlation of evaluation indexes was proposed in the semantic environment,which overcame the disadvantages of existing studies from the following four aspects: the Context-Free Grammar Judgement (CFGJ) and Possibility Distribution-Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Term Set (PD-HFLTS) were utilized to characterize the uncertain information;a detecting and adjusting algorithm of group opinions' conflict based on PD-HFLTS was put forward to reduce the conflict level among DMs;a novel method for determination of indexes' correlation weight was proposed based on DEMATEL and ANP;a novel Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method based on prospect theory was put forward to rank the alternatives.The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model was illustrated by the example of a high-speed railway station copying with a large number of stranded passengers.

Key words: emergency decision making, uncertain environment, semantic information, group opinion conflict, indexes' correlation weight, prospect theory, technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution

摘要： 针对不确定环境下的应急群决策问题,提出一种新的基于语义信息的考虑群体冲突与指标关联的应急群决策模型。利用自由语义信息与可能性分布—犹豫模糊语言集刻画并处理不确定信息;提出一种基于可能性分布—犹豫模糊语言集的群体意见冲突检测与调整算法,降低了专家群体的意见冲突水平;提出一种新的基于决策试验和评价实验室与网络层次分析方法的指标关联权重确定方法;考虑决策专家的风险偏好,提出一种基于前景理论的逼近理想解排序算法。以某高铁车站应对大量旅客滞留突发事件为例,验证了所提模型的有效性与科学性。

关键词: 应急决策, 不确定环境, 语义信息, 群体意见冲突, 关联权重, 前景理论, 基于前景理论的逼近理想解