Abstract: With respect to the problem of uncertainty,extreme evaluation information and unicity risk factors in traditional failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA),a risk assessment method based on fuzzy sets and decision making and trial evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) was proposed,which provided an important basis for failure prevention and maintenance.To deal with the fuzzy and uncertainty evaluation information of experts,the  trapezoidal fuzzy number were used in this method.Considering the consensus among experts,the similarity aggregation method (SAM) was used to calculate the relative consistency of the expert evaluation results,and the expert weight was calculated based on the expert's personal situation.By considering that each failure mode can be caused by multiple potential risk factors and the correlative influence between risk factors,the DEMATEL method was used to analyze the priority order of failure modes and risk factors.A case study of failure assessment for crankcase explosion was presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Key words: failure mode and effect analysis, trapezoidal fuzzy number, similarity aggregation method , decision making and trial evaluation laboratory

摘要： 针对传统故障模式与影响分析(FMEA)存在评估信息具有不确定性、极端性及风险因素之间具有单一性等问题,提出一种基于模糊集和决策与试验评价实验室(DEMATEL)的风险评估方法,为故障的预防与维护提供了重要依据。针对专家评估信息的不确定性与模糊性,该方法采用梯形模糊数处理专家的评估信息;考虑到专家之间存在共识,运用相似性聚合法(SAM)计算专家评估结果的相对一致度,并结合专家个人背景动态计算专家权重;考虑到某种故障模式可能由多个潜在的风险因素导致,且风险因素之间存在交互关系,应用DEMATEL方法分析故障模式与风险因素的优先级顺序。以某船用柴油发动机曲轴箱爆炸故障的风险评估为例,验证了所提方法的有效性与可行性。

关键词: 故障模式与影响分析, 梯形模糊数, 相似性聚合法, 决策与试验评价实验室