Abstract: To overcome the limitations of large group experts risk evaluation,risk factors weights and failures risk ranking in the traditional Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA),a new FMEA method was proposed based on cloud model and Grey Relational Analysis—VIKOR (GRA-VIKOR).The cloud model was used to represent the risk evaluation of experts.Then,the objective weights of risk factors were calculated based on the Criteria Importance though Inter-criteria Correlation (CRITIC) method.Finally,the GRA-VIKOR method was adopted to take the risk priority of the identified failure modes.A case of risk assessment about smart city information security was applied to verify the applicability of the proposed model,and then comparative analysis and Monte Carlo simulation were conducted to demonstrate the advantages and reliability of the proposed method.

Key words: failure mode and effect analysis, large group experts, cloud model, grey relational analysis—VIKOR, smart city information security

摘要： 针对传统失效模式与影响分析(FMEA)方法在大群组专家风险评价、风险因子权重确定以及失效模式风险排序等方面存在的不足,提出一种基于云模型与GRA-VIKOR的大群组改进FMEA方法。首先,运用云模型处理大群组专家的风险评价信息;其次,采用基于指标相关性的准则重要性法(CRITIC)计算风险因子的客观权重;最后,运用GRA-VIKOR法对失效模式进行风险排序。为验证该模型的适用性,将其应用于智慧城市的信息安全风险评估,并通过对比分析和蒙特卡洛仿真验证其优越性和可靠性。

关键词: 失效模式与影响分析, 大群组专家, 云模型, GRA-VIKOR, 智慧城市信息安全