In view of the change propagation triggered by the component change increased the cycle and cost of product design and development,the risk prediction of change propagation for multi-linkage component based on Change Prediction Method (CPM) was proposed and the risk value of change for each component was evaluated to reduce the cycle and cost of the product development and design.Based on the complex linkage of components,the matrix of multi-linkages change propagation for components was constructed,which integrated two dimensions of the vertical component-function linkage and the horizontal component-structure linkage.According to the above matrix of change propagation,the prediction algorithm for change propagation risk was proposed based on Change Prediction Method (CPM).The risk priority for the rest of components affected by changed component and risk matrix of change propagation for multi-linkage components were obtained.The feasibility of the proposed method for risk prediction was verified by an example.

针对零件更改触发的更改传播现象加大了产品设计开发的周期和成本等问题,提出了基于更改预测方法(CPM)的零件多关联更改传播风险预测研究,系统

的评估受更改传播影响后各个零件的更改风险值以降低产品开发设计的周期和成本。在梳理零件间复杂关联关系的基础上,融合两个维度关联关系,即纵向基于

映射的零件—功能关联关系与横向基于约束的零件—结构关联关系,构建了零件多关联更改传播矩阵;根据上述两个维度的零件多关联更改传播矩阵,提出基于

CPM方法的零件多关联更改传播风险预测算法;计算获取了某一零件更改时其余各零件受更改传播影响的风险优先级及零件多关联更改传播风险矩阵。通过实例

验证了该风险预测方法的可行性。