Abstract: Aiming at the deficiency of present structural vulnerability assessment,the structural vulnerability assessment method of manufacturing systems based on Markov process and information entropy theory was brought out by analyzing the structural vulnerability cause systematically.The state transition equations were built through analyzing the states of manufacturing units.The critical vulnerability states was defined,the theory of information entropy was used to calculate the structural vulnerability of manufacturing units,and the structural vulnerability degree of manufacturing unites was measured.The buffers'vulnerability was defined through analyzing the buffers'states so as to analyze the influences of buffers'states and capacity on structural vulnerability of manufacturing system.The states of system was simplified and the critical vulnerability states of system was defined to establish the structural vulnerability quantitative model of manufacturing system based on units vulnerability and information entropy.The structural vulnerability was used to analyze the potentially dangerous of manufacturing units so as to provide a reference for safe operation and monitoring of the system.A mixed-manufacturing system was taken as an example to verify the effectiveness of the model and validity of the evaluation method.

Key words: manufacturing systems, vulnerability, state entropy, Markov process, assessment

摘要： 针对制造系统结构脆弱性难以量化评估的难题,在分析系统结构脆弱性成因的基础上,提出一种基于马尔科夫过程和信息熵原理的制造系统结构脆弱性量化评估方法。通过分析制造单元的各种工作状态,建立了状态转移方程;定义了制造单元临界脆弱性状态,利用信息熵原理计算制造单元的脆弱性,测度其脆弱性程度;通过分析缓冲区的状态,定义了缓冲区脆弱性,分析了缓冲区状态及容量对系统结构脆弱性的影响;通过简化系统状态,定义系统脆弱性的临界状态,基于单元脆弱性和信息熵原理对系统结构脆弱性进行量化评估。利用制造单元的结构脆弱性,判断不同的制造单元在面对风险时潜在威胁性的大小,为系统安全运行和监控提供借鉴。通过混流制造系统结构脆弱性的具体评价表明该方法在量化评估系统脆弱性时具有较好的效果。

关键词: 制造系统, 脆弱性, 状态熵, 马尔科夫过程, 量化评估