Abstract: To research the trade-in policy implemented by enterprises autonomously,an Autonomous Trade-In Strategy (ATIS) model of manufacturer based on net customer effect was constructed with dual-channel competition structure.By using game theory,the dominant situation of ATIS model's different strategies and the corresponding equilibrium solutions of decision-making were obtained,and  the effect of factors on strategies and solutions were discussed.The results showed that the manufacturer could adopt ATIS under a certain condition and its strategic behaviors were affected by factors such as cost and Depreciation Degree of Old Products (DDOP).In some cases,the anticipant strategy of retailer was different from the optimal strategy of manufacturer,and its following decisions depended on the actual market environment.The increase of old customers' acceptance degree to the network channel made some old customers shift from the traditional channel to the network channel,but it was opposite for new customers.Only when DDOP was higher than a certain threshold,the manufacturer could benefit from the increase of old customers' market share.

Key words: dual-channel supply chain, autonomous trade-in, manufacturer, strategic behavior, pricing

摘要： 为研究企业同时在线上线下自主推行以旧换新业务的策略与决策问题,从双销售渠道的结构出发,构建基于消费者净效用的制造商自主以旧换新策略模型,利用博弈论探讨其不同策略行为的占优情况及相应的供应链决策,并讨论各因素对策略、渠道决策等的影响。研究表明：制造商一定条件下才适宜在双渠道上实行以旧换新策略,且策略行为受市场结构、旧产品折旧程度等影响;在某些情况下,零售商的期望策略与制造商的最优策略冲突,跟随决策亦需依情况而定;老客户网络渠道接受度的提高使得部分老客户从传统渠道转移到网络渠道,但对新客户的影响则相反;仅当旧产品折旧度高于某阈值时,制造商才能获益于市场中老客户占比的增大。

关键词: 双渠道供应链, 自主以旧换新, 制造商, 策略行为, 定价