Abstract: To evaluate the reliability of metal cutting-tool.an probability assessment method of reliability and mean life was proposed.By using Markov chain Monte Carlo method,the problem of Bayesian point and interval estimation of model parameters for Weibull Proportional Hazards Model(WPHM)to describe failure rate of cutting-tool was solved.Tool reliability,failure rate,mean life and its lower limit value could be obtained by the proposed method.A real field example was analyzed,and the results showed that cutting-tool reliability decreased non-monotonously with the operating time and cutting parameters and mean life fluctuate with the variable cutting parameters.The cutting parameters and expert prior information was considered by proposed method synthetically,and assessment results of tool reliability and mean life were in accord with real machining situations.

Key words: cutting-tool reliability, Bayes evaluation, Markov chain Monte Carlo, Weibull proportional hazards model

摘要： 为了评估金属切削刀具的可靠性,提出了机床切削刀具可靠度和平均寿命的概率评估方法,利用马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛法解决了描述刀具故障率的Weibull比例危险模型参数贝叶斯点估计及区间估计难题,所提评估方法可给出刀具可靠度、故障率、平均寿命及其下限的估计值。通过实例分析表明:刀具可靠度随切削用量和切削时间的变化非单调下降,而平均寿命随切削用量的变化而波动变化。所提方法综合考虑了切削用量和验前经验,给出的刀具可靠度和平均寿命估计更符合实际加工条件。

关键词: 刀具可靠性, 贝叶斯估计, 马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛法, Weibull比例危险模型