Abstract: To evaluate operational reliability of complex systems accurately,a operational reliability evaluation method by considering multi-failure modes was proposed for failure law and characteristics.The monitoring information was utilized and fused by Bayesian Linear model for degradation level evaluation,and the degradation reliability evaluation model was built based on Gamma random process.Aiming at the features of small sample of sudden failure,a reliability evaluation model based on Bayesian method was built with Weibull method.Based on integrated degradation failure with sudden failure,an operational reliability evaluation model of Bayesian model averaging was proposed.Markov chain Monte-Carlo method was used for solving operational reliability model.An aircraft engines was taken as the example to demonstrate the application process and the effectiveness of proposed method.

Key words: failure modes, reliability evaluation, Bayesian model averaging, complex system

摘要： 为准确评估复杂系统的运行可靠性,针对复杂系统的失效规律和特点,提出考虑多失效模式的运行可靠性评估方法。采用贝叶斯线性模型融合状态监测信息,评估退化水平,建立基于Gamma随机过程的退化失效可靠性评估模型;针对突发失效样本量小的特点,采用贝叶斯方法,建立基于Weibull分布的突发失效可靠性评估模型。以退化失效可靠性评估和突发失效可靠性评估为基础,应用贝叶斯模型平均技术建立复杂系统的运行可靠性评估模型,定量分析退化失效和突发失效对复杂系统运行可靠性的影响,并采用马尔科夫链-蒙特卡洛方法求解模型。以某型航空发动机为例,说明了该方法的应用过程,验证了该方法的有效性。

关键词: 失效模式, 可靠性评估, 贝叶斯模型平均, 复杂系统