关键词: 多模式, Markov决策过程, 动态规划, 交货期预测, 优先规则, 模具制造

Abstract: The due-dates of mould projects were hard to predict caused by various uncertain factors.Concerning with this problem，several major random factors in mould manufacturing were analyzed and the multi-mode concept was proposed.Moreover，a stochastic prediction model was established by combining dynamic workshop load control theory.Based on this model，the evolution of ongoing projects was conducted by integrating Multi-mode Resource Constrain Projects Schedule Problem (MRCPSP) priority rules and the mathematical distribution of due-date was obtained.During this process，dynamic programming was used to obtain optimal strategies which minimized penalty of project tardiness.To reduce computational complexity，the state space was confined by Markov rough evolution and eliminated to low occurring probabilities.A project management module was developed and applied in the evolution of a project group，the distribution of due-date and optimal strategies were obtained.The result showed that the prediction model had good practicability.

Key words: multi-mode, Markov decision process, dynamic programming, due-date forecast, priority rules, mould manufacturing