关键词: 供应链联盟, 贝叶斯概率, 直接信任, 推荐信任, 评估模型

Abstract: To conduct quantitative study on credit value in enterprises of supply chain alliance, credit of supply chain partnership was decomposed into direct credit and recommendation credit. Estimation method of Bayesian probability was used to estimate the credit value of supply chain partnership quantitatively. According to the update value of credit mechanism, the values of direct credit and recommendation credit were updated respectively. Finally, the comprehensive evaluation model of credit value between enterprises partners was obtained. Simulation results and the analysis indicated that the assessment model reflected the reputation mechanism, and had manifested the opportunism and the malicious recommendation behavior penalty thought. When continuous trade defeat occured or the partner enterprise had the opportunism behavior, credit value would drop rapidly, the credit value restoration would be a long process.

Key words: supply chain alliance, Bayesian probability, direct credit, recommending credit, estimation model