关键词: 发明问题解决理论, 文本挖掘, 产品技术成熟度, 专利新颖度

Abstract: To apply technology maturity of product(TM) forecasting effectively and widely，in combination with related research status home and abroad，an approach for TM forecasting based on text-mining was proposed. The approach applied text-mining technique to extract the inherent，objective and quantitative information hiding in patent database. Technology novelty measurement function was defined firstly to quantify the novelty degree about some special technology in order to evaluate patent quality; renewal fees which were expected to reflect profits and patent number were also used as forecasting indexes besides technology novelty degree. After explaining the steps of the approach，an empirical illustration about optical communication technology in China is forecasted and the results show this approach is effective.

Key words: theory of invention problem solving, text mining, technology maturity of product, patent novelty, patent cost