关键词: 模糊性, 多状态系统, 贝叶斯网络, 复杂冗余系统, 液压系统, 推进器, 可靠性分析

Abstract: To solve the limitations of traditional methods in the reliability analysis of complex redundant systems with multiple states and accurate failure rate difficult to obtain,an improved reliability analysis method based on fuzzy multi-state Bayesian networks was proposed.Through two-state fault tree,multi-state Bayesian network structure was built,and fuzzy numbers were used to describe the failure rate of root nodes.The conditional probability tables reflected the polymorphism and uncertain logical relationship between nodes were constructed according to engineering experience.The analysis process was elaborated to calculate the reliability,the posterior probability and the importance degree,and it was applied in the reliability analysis of hydraulic system in ship propellers.The results showed that the proposed method could meet the actual needs of reliability assessment,failure prediction knowing current state and reliability growth of redundant system,which had a reference value for the reliability research of similar systems.

Key words: fuzziness, multi-state system, Bayesian networks, complex redundant system, hydraulic system, propeller, reliability analysis