Abstract: Design changes are inevitable in the product development process,and analyzing the propagation mechanism of changes can help reduce the risk of propagation and improve product quality.To accurately describe the dynamic propagation process of product design change,a cascaded failure propagation model for parts-supplier two-layer network was established.Considering the influence of suppliers and manufacturers on the propagation of design changes,a two-layer product design network integrating parts and suppliers was constructed by taking parts and their suppliers as nodes.The network cascading failure mechanism was used to analyze the propagation process of changes by taking the source of change as the initial failure node,and a cross-layer cascading failure model of the two-layer product design network was established.Considering the variation of average load of neighbor nodes,a bilateral change impact evaluation index including load margin was defined to identify the important nodes in the network and predict the anti-change capability of products.Finally,the validity of the proposed model and prediction method were verified by an example of Skyworth TV's design change.

Key words: design change, product design network, cascade failure, supplier

摘要： 设计变更在产品开发过程中不可避免,分析变更传播机制有助于降低传播风险、提升产品质量。为准确描述产品设计变更的动态传播过程,建立一种面向零部件－供应商双层网络的级联失效传播模型。首先,同时考虑供应商与制造商对设计变更传播的影响,以零部件及其供应商为节点,构建融合零部件和供应商的双层产品设计网络;接着,将变更源看作初始的失效节点,采用网络级联失效机制分析变更的传播过程,建立双层产品设计网络的跨层级联失效模型;随后,考虑邻居节点平均负荷的变化量,定义一种计及负荷余量的双边变更影响度评估指标,用以识别网络中的重要节点,进而预测出产品的抗变更能力。最后,以创维公司某型号电视机的变更设计问题为例,通过实例分析验证了所建模型和预测方法的有效性。

关键词: 设计变更, 产品设计网络, 级联失效, 供应商