Abstract: To analyze the trust formation mechanism and understand the key conditions for realization mutual trust and win-win cooperation in cloud manufacturing environment,a trust game model based on incomplete information game theory was put forward.A two-side dynamic game model was built from the perspective of services demanders'short-term returns,and two possible game equilibriums and the corresponding conditions were analyzed.Meanwhile,a tri-game model was built from the perspective of services providers'long-term returns,and the possibilities of game equilibriums were discussed.An equilibrium in mixed perspective was obtained through a comprehensive analysis.The existence of game equilibriums was verified with Monte Carlo simulation,and the influence of different factors on trust game was analyzed.The simulation results showed that the preferences of service demanders could promote the formation of trust between demanders and providers which met their preferences and made the whole number of trade show multi-peak distribution,and the increase of disguise cost and punishment rate of dishonesty could promote the formation of the trust.

Key words: cloud manufacturing, incomplete information game, perfect Bayesian Nash equilibrium, trust formation mechanism

摘要： 为分析云制造环境下的信任形成机制,了解达到互信、共赢局面的关键条件,提出一种基于不完全信息博弈理论的信任博弈模型。从需求方注重短期收益的视角建立了两方动态博弈模型,分析了两种可能的均衡及其条件;从服务方注重长期收益的视角建立了三方重复博弈模型,分情况讨论了博弈均衡存在的可能性。通过综合分析,得到了混合视角下的均衡。利用蒙特卡洛仿真验证了博弈均衡的存在性并分析了不同因素对信任博弈的影响。仿真结果表明：需求方的偏好对与其偏好相符合的服务方之间的信任具有促进作用,同时会造成整体交易数据呈现多峰分布,伪装成本和失信处罚率的提升都对信任形成有显著促进作用。

关键词: 云制造, 不完全信息博弈, 精炼贝叶斯纳什均衡, 信任形成机制