Abstract: To reduce the implementing obstacle of disruptive innovation,a quantitative model was provided to evaluate the disruptive innovative design scheme in advance.From the view of product design in disruptive innovation,the key characteristics that influenced the customer value of product were extracted.The key characteristics of the mainstream product and that involved in disruptive innovative design scheme were extracted and analyzed comparatively,so as to acquire the variation tendency and quantity of each kind of characteristic and selected as independent variables.On the basis of fitting the sample data of the selected disruptive innovative cases,the model of evaluating disruptive innovative design scheme was established by using the logistic regression analysis.The model provided guidance for evaluating the success ratio of disruptive innovative design scheme objectively.Additionally,it brought innovation opportunities of product and reduced the investment risk for enterprises.Based on the ex-ante evaluation model,the financial equipment was taken for example to verify the feasibility of this approach.

Key words: disruptive innovation, implementation obstacle, key characteristics extraction, logistic regression, ex-ante evaluation

摘要： 为减少破坏性创新的实施障碍,提供一种事前评价破坏性创新设计方案的量化模型,从破坏性创新产品设计的角度,提取影响产品买方价值的关键特征因子,对主流产品及破坏性创新方案中的系统关键特征进行对比分析,以统计各类特征因子的变化趋势和数量,将其作为自变量,在多元逻辑回归分析方法拟合样本数据的基础上,建立破坏性创新设计方案的评价模型。此模型可为客观评价破坏性创新设计方案在市场中的成功概率提供依据、增添企业产品创新机会、降低投资风险。应用此事前评价模型,以金融装备为例,分析验证了方法的可行性。

关键词: 破坏性创新, 实施障碍, 关键特征提取, 逻辑回归, 事前评价