Abstract: Aiming at innovation decision dilemma of a kind of self-research and development latecomer firm,the characteristics of disruptive innovation and sustaining innovation were analyzed in viewpoint of company's dynamic competitive advantages.A 0-1 nonlinear decision model was built with consumer surplus as the optimization objective,which provided guidance for the latecomer firm product family innovation decision.A genetic algorithm was put forward to solve the 0-1 nonlinear decision model.A case study of automobile was reported to demonstrate the feasibility and rationality of this approach.

Key words: disruptive innovation, sustaining innovation, latecomer firm, complex decision model, genetic algorithms

摘要： 针对一类以自主研发为主的后发企业面临的创新决策困局,从提升企业动态竞争优势的视角剖析了破坏性创新与维持性创新的特征。建立了以消费者剩余为优化目标的0-1非线性决策模型,该模型可以预测破坏性创新与维持性创新的市场收益,为后发企业决策产品族创新模式提供依据。针对该模型的特点,采用遗传算法求解,并以汽车企业案例对模型及算法加以说明,证明了所提优化模型及求解方法的可行性与合理性。

关键词: 破坏性创新, 维持性创新, 后发企业, 复杂决策模型, 遗传算法