Abstract: Aiming at the difficulty of cost estimation in complex product's conceptual design,the closeness degree between the new product and the existing products was analyzed.A new calculation method for each index weight was put forward by considering the different influence on the cost,and the weighted proportion closeness degree to target sequence was studied.The weighted proportion closeness degree was regard as the smoothing coefficient of exponential smoothing model to estimate the cost,and the result by comparing with the exponential smoothing model with the unchanged coefficient showed that the proposed model had higher prediction precision.

Key words: complex product, cost estimation, driving effect, exponential smoothing, weighted proportion closeness degree, product design

摘要： 针对复杂产品概念设计阶段难以精确测算成本的问题,分析了新产品与已有产品的贴近程度。提出一种配置各指标权重的方法,研究了目标序列的加权距离比重贴近度测度模型及性质。将加权距离比重贴近度作为平滑系数对新产品进行成本估算,与平滑系数不变的指数平滑方法进行对比,结果表明该方法具有较高的预测精度。

关键词: 复杂产品, 成本测算, 驱动效应, 指数平滑, 加权距离比重贴近度, 产品设计