Abstract: To research the influence of warranty period on business performance and to make the enterprise design a more scientific and reasonable warranty period,the interaction between maintenance strategy and enterprise business performance factors from two dimensions of technology and marketing was analyzed.By considering the continuous quality improvement in the process of product development and manufacture,the dynamic model of warranty period optimization system based on reliability growth was established,and the simulation for an air conditioning enterprise was conducted.The analysis results revealed that the annual accrued warranty costs of enterprise increased first and then decreased under the condition of product reliability growth;the strategy for extending warranty period should be adopted to realize the enterprise profit maximization when the product's reliability growth reached a certain threshold.

Key words: reliability growth, parameters analysis, warranty period, system dynamics model

摘要： 为分析保修期对企业经营绩效的影响,使企业更科学合理地制定保修期,从技术和营销两个维度,对保修策略与企业经营绩效影响因素二者之间的相互关系进行了研究,并考虑研发和生产过程中持续质量改进的影响,建立了基于可靠性增长的保修期优化设计系统动力学模型,并将该模型应用于某空调企业的仿真分析。应用分析结果揭示：在产品可靠性增长的情况下,企业每年的预提保修成本先增加后减少;当产品的可靠性水平增长达到某一阈值时,应采用适当延长保修期的策略来实现企业利润的最大化。

关键词: 可靠性增长, 因素分析, 保修期, 系统动力学模型