Abstract: The strategic decision between re-shoring and ally-shoring has emerged as a critical issue for multinational corporations.Considering market demand uncertainty,two-stage production decision models of re-shoring and ally-shoring were established under demand information updating.The impact of market demand forecast accuracy,reliability level of ally-shoring and total production cost on production decisions and manufacturing mode selection of multinational corporations were compared and analyzed.Through above analysis,the research showed that when market demand forecast accuracy was high and the prior probability of high demand was medium,ally-shoring corporations adopt a fixed production strategy.However,in the face of inaccurate market demand forecasts,ally-shoring corporations revised their production plans in the second stage,opting for either a delayed or an advanced production strategy.In addition,with a low reliability level,re-shoring was superior to ally-shoring.When the reliability level was moderate and the prior probability of high demand was small,the lower forecast accuracy made re-shoring preferable to ally-shoring.Otherwise,multinational corporations chose ally-shoring.It was also found that as the total production cost of two manufacturing modes increases,there was a discernible trend among multinational corporations to transition from ally-shoring to re-shoring.

Key words: re-shoring, ally-shoring, demand uncertainty, two-stage production, manufacturing reliability

摘要： 在岸制造和友岸制造选择成为跨国公司十分关注的问题。考虑市场需求不确定,在需求信息更新下构建两阶段生产决策模型刻画在岸制造和友岸制造两种制造模式,探究市场需求预测准确度、友岸制造可靠性水平和生产总成本影响下,跨国公司的生产决策和制造模式选择问题。研究表明:①只有当市场需求预测准确度较高,且高类型市场需求先验概率居中时,跨国公司友岸制造下采取固定生产策略,然而,市场需求预测的不准确性使跨国公司在第二阶段调整产品生产,采取延迟生产策略或提前生产策略;②当友岸制造可靠性水平较低时,跨国公司选择在岸制造,或可靠性水平适中且高类型市场需求先验概率较小时,较低的市场需求预测准确度也使跨国公司选择在岸制造,否则跨国公司选择友岸制造;③随着两种制造模式的生产总成本同时增加,跨国公司从友岸制造向在岸制造转移。

关键词: 在岸制造, 友岸制造, 需求不确定, 两阶段生产, 制造可靠性