Abstract: When the operation of high-speed train deviates from the original time table,a 3-to-4-hour regulation plan is needed to adjust the operation of the relevant trains in order to reduce the delays.How to evaluate the effectiveness of the regulation plan so that a better train operation plan is made and reasonably selected has been the core task in train dispatching and rescheduling.This is particularly true if the fact is considered that trains’ operations are continuously affected by various uncertainties and it is inevitable more extra delays will be introduced.A joint fast simulator was developed for operation and dispatching,and a method to evaluate the robustness of train operation adjustment plan was proposed under the uncertain disturbance.The simulator integrated the train operation model with the combination of mechanism and data drive,the data-driven train delay uncertainty disturbance model and the interactive communication interface.Through the robustness evaluation model,the statistical analysis of delay propagation and delay recovery of the scheduling plan was carried out,and the robustness evaluation of whole process and scene of train adjustment plan  was conducted.The section of Shenyang to Dalian north of Harbin-Dalian high-speed railway was selected to verify the simulator,and the results showed that it could evaluate the train adjustment plan quickly and reliably.Besides,the simulator could provide accurate objective function evaluation and data support for intelligent scheduling method in the future to find a scheduling algorithm with better robustness performance and delay optimization.

Key words: train simulator, uncertain disturbance, regulation plan evaluation, intelligent scheduling

摘要： 当高铁列车发生晚点偏离基本运行图,无法按图运行时,需要制定3~4小时阶段调整计划,以减少晚点。如何评估列车运行图的有效性,以合理地选择一个较优的阶段调整计划是行车调度的核心问题,尤其是列车运行过程中会持续受各种不确定因素的影响,形成新的晚点。针对该问题,设计开发了运控调度协同快速仿真系统,提出一种不确定扰动下列车阶段调整计划的鲁棒性评估方法。该仿真系统集成了机理和数据驱动结合的列车运行模型、数据驱动的列车延误不确定性扰动模型,以及交互式通信接口,具备了在各种延误扰动下列车阶段调整计划的仿真验证,并通过鲁棒性评估模块,对调度方案进行晚点传播情况、晚点恢复能力等性能指标的统计分析,对阶段调整计划进行全流程全场景的鲁棒性评估。以哈大高速铁路沈阳-大连北区段为例,对两种调度算法生成的调整运行图进行评估,验证了所设计的仿真器能够快速、可靠地对阶段调整计划进行评估,为未来开展智能调度,寻找晚点恢复性能和鲁棒性兼顾优化的调度算法提供准确的目标函数评估和数据支撑。

关键词: 列车运行仿真器, 不确定性扰动, 阶段调整计划评估, 智能调度