›› 2020, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (11): 2976-2981.DOI: 10.13196/j.cims.2020.11.007
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戴怡1,刘琴2
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Abstract: To contrast survival analysis with maximum likelihood in reliability estimation,and to choose better estimation method in timing censored test with replacement,the reliability estimation method based on survival analysis and maximum likelihood was studied.Because timing censored test with replacement had been considered to be most appropriate for reliability estimation of numerical control machine tool,the relationship between the model of randomly censored and timing censored test with replacement was deduced.With Monte Carlo method,the conclusion that maximum likelihood was better than survival analysis during common test time (the test time was 1.4~2.5 times that of mean time between failures) was obtained,and the relationship between the censored test time and confidence probability of timing censored test with replacement was calculated.
Key words: timing censored test with replacement, randomly censored, survival analysis, maximum likelihood, mean time between failures, numerical control machine tool, reliability estimation
摘要: 为了对比生存分析与极大似然法在可靠性评估方面的优劣,并选择适合有替换定时截尾试验的评估方法,研究了基于生存分析与极大似然法的可靠性评估方法。由于认为有替换定时截尾模型更适合数控机床可靠性评估,推导了有替换定时截尾模型与随机删失模型之间的关系。采用蒙特卡洛方法进行研究,得出常规时间下(即截尾时间是平均寿命真值1.4~2.5倍)极大似然法评估结果优于生存分析方法的结论,并计算出有替换定时截尾试验的截尾时间与置信概率之间的相互关系。
关键词: 有替换定时截尾, 随机截尾, 生存分析, 极大似然法, 平均无故障工作时间, 数控机床, 可靠性评估
CLC Number:
TG659
O213.2
戴怡,刘琴. 基于生存分析与极大似然法的可靠性评估[J]. 计算机集成制造系统, 2020, 26(11): 2976-2981.
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URL: http://www.cims-journal.cn/EN/10.13196/j.cims.2020.11.007
http://www.cims-journal.cn/EN/Y2020/V26/I11/2976