Abstract: Aiming at the deficiency of traditional reliability analysis method for manufacturing system, the brittleness theory of complex system and the multi-state manufacturing system theory were combined to build the reliability analysis method for multi-state manufacturing system based on brittleness theory. The mechanism of multi-state generation and brittleness motivation of manufacturing system were studied. The brittleness motivators set was constructed from aspects of machining process, human and environment, and the coupling relationship among three aspects was also established Each brittleness motivator's risk degree, coupling degree and brittleness degree were given. The state space model was introduced to describe the state evolution of manufacturing system under brittleness effect, and the state evolution model of multi-state manufacturing system was established on this basis. The improvement Universal Generating Function (UGF) was proposed by considering brittleness effect. The generated functions of multi-state manufacturing system and its equipment units were defined respectively, and the indexes such as performance state and actual reliability of multi-state manufacturing system were discussed. An example of manufacturing system for machining double-parts cluster composed of cylinder was taken to prove the usability and validity of the proposed method.

Key words: manufacturing system|reliability analysis|brittleness theory|multi-state|state space model|universal generating function

摘要： 针对传统制造系统可靠性分析方法的不足，将复杂系统脆性理论与多状态制造系统理论相结合，提出一种基于脆性理论的多状态制造系统可靠性分析方法。研究了制造系统多态性的产生机理与脆性激发机理，从加工过程、人员、环境三个方面构建了脆性激发因素集以及三方面因素之间的相互耦合关系，并给出各脆性激发因素风险度、耦合度与脆性度的量化方法；引入状态空间模型，描述了脆性效应作用下多状态制造系统的状态演变过程，在此基础上建立多状态制造系统的状态演变模型；提出一种考虑脆性效应的改进通用生成函数法，分别定义了多状态制造系统及其设备单元的生成函数，对多状态制造系统的工作性能状态与实际稳态可靠度等指标进行了分析。以国内某制造企业的双缸体零件族制造系统为例，证明了所提方法的可用性与有效性。

关键词: 制造系统|可靠性分析|脆性理论|多状态|状态空间模型|通用生成函数