关键词: 控制模型, 反馈, 扰动, 牛鞭效应, 协同, 系统辨识

Abstract: Bullwhip effect was caused by fuzzy demand among enterprises. In order to reduce this effect, enterprise meta-model and a collaborative supply chain model were constructed by using modeling theory of control systems. It was used to describe supply and demand information meanwhile reflected demand feedback and disturbance influence among enterprises in supply chain. System identification method was used to quantify supply-demand relationship. Parameters of collaborative model were obtained by sharing the historical data. Then the quantity of demand and production were predicted with integrated model. Simulation results showed that inventory accumulation caused by bullwhip effect could be reduced effectively.

Key words: control model, feedback, disturbance, bullwhip effect, collaborative, system identification, supply chains