关键词: 低估供应线, 近因效应, 行为成因, 牛鞭效应, 订货提前期

Abstract: Supply line underweighting is a robust ordering decision error.To find a behavioral antecedent to supply line underweighting,a multi-period one seller's ordering model was established and the behavioral ordering decision model was depicted by a demand-chasing fashion.The difference between the behavioral model and the basic model were compared through simulation.The recency effect was a significant behavioral antecedent to supply line underweighting.As the recency effect was strengthened,the supply line underweighting intensifies and the operating cost increased.Under the influence of the recency effect,the increased ordering lead time and demand volatility intensified supply line underweighting,but the increased batch size weakened supply line underweighting.

Key words: supply line underweighting, recency effect, behavioral cause, bullwhip effect, ordering lead time