• 论文 •    

缓冲估计与关键链项目管理

褚春超   

  1. 交通部科学研究院 交通发展研究中心, 北京100029
  • 出版日期:2008-05-15 发布日期:2008-05-25

Buffer sizing and critical chain project management

CHU Chun-chao   

  1. Transportation Development Research Center, China Academy of Transportation Science, Beijing 100029, China
  • Online:2008-05-15 Published:2008-05-25

摘要: 为解决项目管理中诸多不确定性问题,提出了关键链项目管理中确定缓冲的新方法。该方法综合考虑了项目资源紧张度、网络图结构复杂度和管理者风险偏好等因素的影响,使链路上无论工序数的多少都能确保缓冲适当。另外,由于考虑了项目实际情况和人为主观因素,细化了缓冲的深刻内涵,使得所提方法更具针对性和灵活性。最后,通过一个算例,将本文方法与50%法和根方差法两种方法进行了对比分析,并借助于蒙特卡罗模拟技术仿真,验证了所提方法的有效性和实用性。

关键词: 项目管理, 缓冲, 关键链, 工序, 资源紧张度

Abstract: An improved buffer sizing method was proposed to deal with various uncertain problems in project management. Effects of project resource intensity, network structure complexity and managers' preference to risks on buffers were considered and integrated in this method, which ensured buffers sizing even more appropriate regardless of activities scale along chains. Moreover, buffer inherent significance was studied in depth, regarding practical circumstance of project and human subjective behavior, which made the proposed method more realistic and flexible. Finally, a case study was carried out to demonstrate application of the proposed method. Comparison of the proposed method with Cut and Paste (C&P) and Root Square Error (RSE) methods were performed. And Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to validate effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method.

Key words: project management, buffer, critical chain, activity, resource intensity

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