基于用户需求灰预测的产品原型演化方法研究

• 论文 •

基于用户需求灰预测的产品原型演化方法研究

王霜，殷国富，　罗中先

1.四川大学制造科学与工程学院，四川成都610065；2.西华大学机械工程与自动化学院，四川成都610039

出版日期:2007-07-15 发布日期:2007-07-25

Product prototype evolution methodology based on grey prediction of customer′s requirements

WANG Shuang， YIN Guo-fu，　LUO Zhong-xian

1.School of Manufacturing Science & Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu610065,China;2.School of Mechanical Engineering & Automation, Xihua University, Chengdu610039, China

Online:2007-07-15 Published:2007-07-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 通过在量化的多维用户需求指标体系上加上时间维来跟踪用户需求的变化过程，统计各时间段内各需求项目的关注值。用归一化方法得到各需求项目在产品模型中的权重。根据在四个以上的时间段内获得的用户需求权重值建立灰模型。通过该模型预测用户需求的变化趋势，使设计人员能提前掌握用户对产品可能的需求走向。按新息原理更新数据后还可进行滚动预测。最后，给出了用该方法对汽车产品原型进行预测的算例。

关键词: 用户需求, 灰系统理论, 灰预测, 产品原型

Abstract: To track transform process of customer′s requirements, time dimension was added in quantified multi-dimension customer′s requirements index system, statistics of customer′s requirements from different period with different right using normalization method was also acquired. A requirements′ grey-system-theory-based Grey Model (GM (1, 1)) was established based on acquired requirements′ right from at least four periods. Trend on customer′s requirement was predicted by GM (1,1). Designer could use this model to understand possible requirements of product in the future. And scroll prediction could be performed by updated data of new information model. Finally, a case study on car′s prototype prediction was provided.

Key words: customer′s requirements, grey system theory, grey prediction, product prototype

中图分类号:

TP391

王霜，，殷国富，　罗中先. 基于用户需求灰预测的产品原型演化方法研究[J]. .

WANG Shuang，， YIN Guo-fu，　LUO Zhong-xian. Product prototype evolution methodology based on grey prediction of customer′s requirements[J]. .

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