关键词: 新产品预售, 产出不确定, 鲁棒定价, 模式价值

Abstract: Advance-selling mode is valuable at balancing demand-side risks,which is favored by enterprises to launch new products.To reveal the value of the mode under yield uncertainty,the robust pricing problem in the process of direct selling was studied when the manufacturer only grasped part information of stochastic proportional yield of new products under the circumstance of yield uncertainty.The research not only found the robust impact of yield uncertainty risk on the normal-sale pricing of new products and the profits of manufacturers,but also revealed that the advance-selling mode was valuable for dealing with this risk.The greater the fluctuation of yield uncertainty risk was,the smaller the discount rate of advance-selling price of new products should be.

Key words: new product advance selling, yield uncertainty, robust pricing, mode value