关键词: 共性技术预测, 共现广度, 共现强度, 专利分析, 技术共现, 动态网络, 多项式回归模型

Abstract: As the basis of preferentially organizing and implementing generic technology research and development,the selection of generic technology is of great significance to upgrade industrial strategy and enhance national core competitiveness.Therefore,the prediction method of industrial generic technology was proposed to realize the efficient selection of industrial generic technology.Based on the technology co-occurrence dynamic network of patents,co-occurrence breadth and co-occurrence strength were defined as indicators of the degree of technology commonality.According to the change rule of these two indicators over time,the polynomial regression model was used to predict the future industrial generic technology.The household appliance industry was chosen as the case,and the empirical study verifies the feasibility of the proposed method.

Key words: generic technology prediction, co-occurrence breadth, co-occurrence strength, patent analysis, technology co-occurrence, dynamic network, polynomial regression model