关键词: 使用可靠性, 保修期, 优化决策, 预测模型, 灵敏性分析

Abstract: In view of the fact that the existing warranty design is limited to product inherent reliability and does not consider the interaction between operational reliability and regional difference,an optimal decision model for product warranty period based on the regional granularity partition of operational reliability is proposed in this study.Firstly,an operational reliability prediction model is established to evaluate operational reliability in different regions by using regional granularity partition results and after-sales failure data.Furthermore,an optimal decision model for warranty period that considers the regional differences of operational reliability,warranty costs and price is developed,and then the optimal solutions are deduced.Finally,the models are applied to evaluate the operational reliability of air-conditioning and optimize warranty decision.The comparison with the traditional method shows the validity and applicability of the models.The results show that the warranty period could be extended to achieve the maximum profits by the proposed method.And the influence rules of model parameters on warranty period,price and profits are revealed by sensitivity analysis.

Key words: operational reliability, warranty period, optimal decision, prediction model, sensitivity analysis