关键词: 制造系统, 预测维修策略, 动态外在因素, 系统退化

Abstract: In view of incomplete consideration to the influence of dynamic environment events on manufacturing system degradation in traditional maintenance policies,a kind of exploratory factor-driven dynamic predictive maintenance policy and optimization method for manufacturing system was put forward.The mapping model between the dynamic external factors on the aspects of machining process,human,environment for dynamic environment events and the performance degradation of manufacturing system in the operational phase was constructed.Moreover,the brittleness theory of complex system and the state space theory were introduced to describe the degradation trajectory and predictive method of manufacturing system performance under the comprehensive impact by dynamic external factors.Under the premise that the instantaneous production rate acted as the characteristic parameters of the performance degradation,the dynamic predictive maintenance policy for manufacturing system were established,and the maintenance policy optimization flow of the manufacturing system was built with the largest benefit output in the operational phase as target.An example of manufacturing system in one domestic manufacture enterprise was taken to prove the usability and validity of the proposed method.

Key words: manufacturing system, predictive maintenance policy, dynamic external factors, system degradation