Abstract: Service process optimization is one of the important parts of service management and service innovation,but the existing optimization methods mainly focus on the qualitative analysis of service process,and lack the quantitative analysis method to optimize the service process according to the dependence of process elements.For this reason,the theory of BPMN and Meta graph was extended by combining probability theory,and a service process analysis method integrating probability BPMN and information probability meta graph was proposed.The probabilistic BPMN was proposed,the activity dependency was defined and the activity dependency table was obtained by reasoning.Then,the information probability Meta graph was proposed,and the information flow of BPMN service process was expressed explicitly and then transformed to obtain the information probability Meta graph and calculate the information dependency table.The effectiveness of the proposed method in the quantitative analysis of uncertain service process was verified through practical case application,which provided more effective support for the analysis of resource allocation,activity dependence and liquidity in service process.

Key words: service process, process analysis, BPMN, Meta graph, probability

摘要： 服务流程优化是服务管理与服务创新的重要内容之一,现有优化方法主要聚焦于服务流程的定性分析,缺少根据流程元素依赖性来优化服务流程的定量分析方法。本文结合概率论扩展了BPMN和Meta图理论,提出了一种集成概率BPMN和信息概率Meta图的服务流程分析方法。首先,提出了概率BPMN,定义了活动依赖度并推理得到活动依赖度表;其次,定义了信息概率Meta图,通过显式表达BPMN服务流程的信息流,转换得到信息概率Meta图,计算得到信息依赖度表;最后,通过实际案例应用验证了所提方法在不确定服务流程量化分析方面的有效性,为服务流程中资源配置、活动依赖、流通性等分析提供了更有效的支持。

关键词: 服务流程, 流程分析, BPMN, Meta图, 概率