Abstract: The design changes aimed at incremental innovation in complex product have been attracted much frequency with the continuous progress of manufacturing technology environmentand dynamic market environment.To effectively predict the manufacturing costs affected by change propagations,and improve the effectiveness and accuracy of design change decisions,a prediction model of design change cost based on complex network approach was proposed from the perspective of internal value chain.The novel analysis model of design feature change propagation had been constructed by the load capacity model to express.Combined the improved grey correlation degree and correlation analysis methods,the global weight of design features network was calculated in statistical theory.Furthermore,the prediction model of change costbased on feature mapping was established by the quantitative design feature values from the influence of change propagation.A case study from Central Air-Conditioning Units of G Company was considered to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Key words: complex product, design changes, change propagation, design change cost, load capacity model

摘要： 在持续进步的制造技术环境和复杂多变的市场环境下,以渐进创新为目标的复杂产品设计变更活动高频多发。为有效预测受变更传播影响的生产制造成本,提高设计变更决策的效益性和准确性,从企业内部价值链视角出发,提出基于复杂网络方法的变更成本预测模型。基于负载容量模型对变更传播进行表达,构建设计特征变更传播分析模型;采用改进的灰色关联度、关联分析方法对全局权重进行计算;基于变更传播影响下的量化设计特征值,建立基于特征映射的变更成本预测模型。最后,以G公司某型永磁同步变频冷水机组为案例,验证了所提方法的可行性和有效性。

关键词: 复杂产品, 设计变更, 变更传播, 设计变更成本, 负载容量模型