Abstract: To explore the economics of Electric Multiple Units (EMU) component maintenance strategies under the influence of uneven passenger flow distribution,the polynomial fitting method was introduced to segment quantify wave passenger flow,and the cost function of component differential shutdown loss under the influence of uneven passenger flow distribution was also proposed.Based on the accelerated failure time model,the dynamic adjustment method of component maintenance strategy with reliability as constraint was established.Through the sensitivity analysis of the delayed maintenance reliability threshold of components,the most economical maintenance strategy adjustment method was determined.The research results showed that the maintenance model considering passenger flow distribution could more accurately characterize the reliability degradation process of components,the dynamic adjustment of maintenance activities of components during the peak passenger flow period could effectively reduce downtime losses.It could be used for maintenance under the influence of uneven passenger flow distribution plan for reference.

Key words: passenger flow distribution, electric multiple units component, maintenance strategy, accelerated failure time model

摘要： 为探究客流分布不均的动车组部件维护策略的经济性,引入多项式拟合方法对波动客流进行分段量化,并提出客流分布不均的部件差异化停机损失成本函数,进而结合加速失效模型建立了以可靠度为约束条件的部件维护策略动态调整方法,通过对部件延迟维护可靠度阈值进行敏感性分析,确定了经济性最佳的维护策略调整方法。研究结果表明,考虑客流分布的维护模型能够更加准确地刻画部件的可靠度退化过程,在客流高峰期内对部件维护活动进行动态调整能够有效降低停机损失,该模型可为客流分布不均情况下制定维护计划提供参考。

关键词: 客流分布, 动车组部件, 维护策略, 加速失效模型