Abstract: The existing research did not consider the relationship between supply chain risk factors,the relationship between risk factors and risk treatment methods under fuzzy environment.Therefore,the supply chain risk management approach based on the hesitant fuzzy Decision—Making and Trial Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) and house of risk was proposed.The hesitant fuzzy sets were used to express the semantic evaluation with multiple optional membership functions to deal with the fuzziness of supply chain risk management.The hesitant fuzzy DEMATEL was developed to analyze the correlation between supply chain risk factors and determine the importance of risk factors.Then,the hesitant fuzzy house of risk model was proposed to translate risk factors into risk events and risk treatment methods.Based on the transformation relationships built in hesitant fuzzy house of risk model and the importance weights of risk factors obtained from hesitant fuzzy DEMATEL,the priorities of risk treatment methods were determined.A case study of supply chain risk management for a large fertilizer company was presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Key words: supply chain risk, risk treatment method, hesitant fuzzy set, decision-making and trial evaluation laboratory, house of risk

摘要： 鉴于现有研究未考虑模糊环境下供应链风险因素之间的相互关系、以及风险因素与风险处理方式之间的关系,提出基于犹豫模糊决策与试验评价实验室(DEMATEL)和风险屋的供应链风险管理方法。采用犹豫模糊集表达具有多个可选隶属度函数的语义评价,以处理供应链风险管理中的模糊性;基于犹豫模糊DEMATEL分析供应链风险因素之间的相关性,并确定其重要度;构建犹豫模糊风险屋模型,将风险因素逐步转化为风险事件、风险处理方式,并基于转化关系和风险因素的重要度确定风险处理方式的优先排序。以某大型肥料公司的供应链风险分析为例验证了该方法的有效性。

关键词: 供应链风险, 风险处理方式, 犹豫模糊集, 决策与试验评价实验室, 风险屋