Abstract: To describe the consumers' joint choice of delivery pattern,service type and time slot for last mile delivery service,the socioeconomics factors,delivery activity characteristics and delivery service attributes were defined as exogenous variables,and the combination of delivery pattern subset,service type subset and delivery time slot subset were taken as the model choice sets,the cross-nested Logit model based on generalized extreme value theory was formulated.The model parameters were estimated by using the data obtained from the questionnaire survey,and the direct elastic analysis of exogenous variables belonged to delivery service attributes class was made.Estimation results showed that the consumers would change their delivery time slot in the first place subsequently,then the delivery pattern and service type finally when exogenous variable altered and delivery service happens in am.If delivery service happened in pm,the consumers would change the delivery pattern firstly,then the delivery time slot and at last service type.Moreover,direct elastic analysis results revealed that consumers were sensitive to the waiting time,service level and economic loss of home delivery,and more trusting the service provided by professionals;consumers were relatively worried about the service quality of non-professionals and unattended type,and were sensitive to all aspects of the home delivery from 8:00 to 10:00 and the pick up goods by themselves from 12:00 to 16:00.

Key words: delivery pattern, service type, delivery time slot, joint choice, cross-nested Logit model

摘要： 为描述消费者对“最后一公里”配送模式、服务方式和配送时隙的联合选择行为,选取社会经济属性、配送活动属性和配送服务属性3类变量作为效用变量,以配送模式子集合、服务方式子集合和配送时隙子集合的组合作为选择项,构建基于广义极值(GEV)理论的交叉巢式Logit模型。通过问卷调查获得的数据,对模型参数进行估计和检验,并进行配送服务属性类效用变量的直接弹性分析。参数估计结果表明,当效用变量改变时,如果配送服务发生在上午,消费者会先变更其配送时隙,然后变更配送模式,最后考虑改变服务方式;如果配送服务发生在下午,消费者会先变更配送模式,然后变更配送时隙,最后变更服务方式。直接弹性分析表明,消费者对送货上门带来的等待时间、服务水平和经济损失都比较敏感;对职业人的配送服务相对信任,而对非职业和无人的服务方式较为顾虑;对8:00~10:00送货上门服务和12:00~16:00自提货物服务的各方面都很关注。

关键词: 配送模式, 服务方式, 配送时隙, 联合选择, 交叉巢式Logit模型