Abstract: To evaluate the product's warranty cost of enterprises effectively and to analyze the influence factors on this basis for formulating the reasonable policy to reduce the warranty cost,a two-dimensional warranty cost for the complex multi-component product based on Monte Carlo simulation and cellular automata was proposed.The failure models for components based on accelerated failure time model were built,and the virtual age method was used to illustrate the influence of imperfect repair degree on failure of components.Compared with traditional “black box” methods,the proposed method simultaneously had a consideration of the product structure and the failure interaction among components so as to make the computing results more accurate.Moreover,compared with the existing researches on the two-dimensional warranty cost analysis of the multi-component product,the proposed method could be applied not only for the product with one of several basic structures but also for the product with a lot of components and complex structure.In addition,the influence of the imperfect repair on the product warranty cost was also considered and the application of the imperfect repair instead of the minimal repair and the complete repair could further reduce the product warranty cost for manufacturers.The proposed method was applied to an example to illustrate the influences of some factors on the warranty cost such as the imperfect repair,the failure interaction and so on.

Key words: complex multi-component product, failure interaction, imperfect repair, two-dimensional warranty cost

摘要： 为帮助企业更有效地评估其产品保证成本,并在此基础上分析其影响因素,从而制定出更为合理的降低产品保证成本的措施,提出基于蒙特卡洛模拟与元胞自动机的复杂多部件产品二维产品保证成本评估方法。该方法基于加速失效时间模型构建部件故障模型,并用虚拟使用时间方法表述不完全维修的维修程度对部件故障的影响。与传统“黑箱”方法相比,该方法考虑了产品结构及部件故障相关性对产品保证成本的影响,使其结果更为准确。另外,与已有关于多部件产品二维产品保证成本分析的研究相比,该方法不局限于几种基本结构,也可应用于产品部件数量多、结构复杂的情况。该方法还考虑了不完全维修对产品保证成本的影响,用不完全维修替代最小维修或完全维修以进一步降低企业产品保证成本。将所提方法应用到算例中,说明了不完全维修及故障相关性等因素对产品保证成本的影响。

关键词: 复杂多部件产品, 故障相关性, 不完全维修, 二维产品保证成本