Abstract: To further enhance the evaluation accuracy of innovative customer essentiality in Customer Collaborative Product Innovation (CCPI),an assessment approach was developed to analyze the customer churn and its ripple effects.By taking Innovative Customer Lifetime Value (ICLV) as a criterion,the defect that present methods only considered the customer current value for identification was overcame.A Weighted Innovative Customer Relationship Network (WICRN) model was established and Triangular Fuzzy Number was introduced to determine the degree of correlation among innovative customer under coexistence relationship.The quantitative expression of ripple effects was proposed with reach-affectability or ripple coefficient as index,which revealed the influence mechanism and degree of the customer relationship on their lifetime value.The calculation model for ICLV was proposed to confirm each customer's essentiality in certain churn probability.The effectiveness and feasibility of proposed method were verified by a case,and the results showed that customer churn and its ripple effects displayed a significant influence on ICLV.Moreover,a strong positive correlation was confirmed between ripple coefficients and innovative customer essentiality.It could provide evidence for improving the collaborative customer relationship management strategic and operational resource allocation mechanism decision making for enterprises.

Key words: innovative customers, essentiality, innovation customer lifetime value, customer churn, ripple effects, complex networks

摘要： 为进一步提高协同产品设计中的创新客户重要度评价的准确率,提出了考虑客户流失及其波及效应的创新客户重要度识别方法。引入创新客户终生价值作为识别准则,以克服目前仅以客户当前价值为识别依据的缺陷;建立加权创新客户关系网络模型,引入三角模糊数确定创新客户之间多种关系并存下的关联程度,并基于此提出以影响可达性或波及系数为指标的波及效应量化表达方法,从而揭示客户间关系对其终生价值的影响机理及影响程度;构建在一定流失概率下的创新客户终生价值计算模型,以确定每个客户的重要度。以某实例验证了该方法的有效性和合理性,结果表明,流失及其波及效应对创新客户价值具有重要影响,且创新客户重要度与自身波及系数呈正相关关系。该研究成果可为企业制定更合理的协同客户关系管理策略和资源分配机制提供决策依据。

关键词: 创新客户, 重要度, 客户终生价值, 客户流失, 波及效应, 复杂网络