关键词: 短生命周期产品, 产品相似度, BASS

Abstract: Demand forecasting for Short Life Cycle Products is not very accurate because it is lack of historical sales data and factors on demands are too much to totally considerate .For these problems,this paper proposes an Improved BASS model for the demand forecasting of short life cycle products.First,the product similarity measure method based on the importance of features was proposed,which contains that the weight distribution of products similar features was achieved through the application of Fuzzy clustering-Rough sets and the similarity of the product was measured by the method to measure the system similarity on this basis,thus providing the basis for the acquisition and consolidation of similar products'historical sales data and the determining the weights of products.Then,considering the influence of the consumer preferences and seasonal factors on demand forecasting,the BASS model was improved,so that the demand forecasting model for short life cycle products based on Improved BASS was proposed.Finally,with an example of demand for a mobile phone forecasting,the scientificity and validity of this method was verified.

Key words: short life cycle products, product similarity, BASS