关键词: 生产物流, 瓶颈多态性, 瓶颈漂移指数, 瓶颈闭环预测

Abstract: Aiming at the prediction problem of production logistics bottleneck shifting under uncertain environment, a closed-loop prediction method of bottleneck was proposed based on bottleneck polymorphism. The concepts of sensitive bottleneck, obtuse bottleneck, growing bottleneck and decreasing bottleneck were formulated to describe the logistics bottleneck polymorphism of manufacturing system qualitatively. Based on bottleneck index, mathematical model of bottleneck shifting index was established by taking time and quality of manufacturing unit as parameters. Decision mechanism of bottleneck polymorphism was constructed to realize bottleneck polymorphism description on the basis of bottleneck shifting index quantitatively, which provided technological support for studying on bottleneck shifting rule. The bottleneck closed-loop prediction method which was composed of data statistic analysis, bottleneck prediction mechanism, bottleneck polymorphism analysis and bottleneck index iterative prediction was founded to realize dynamic and continuous prediction of production logistics bottleneck. An example of dynamically forecasting and monitoring the production logistics bottleneck in an automobile assembly shop was given to verify the effectiveness and accuracy of proposed prediction method.

Key words: production logistics, bottleneck polymorphism, bottleneck shifting index, bottleneck closed-loop prediction