关键词: 产品设计项目, 过程仿真, 动态因果图, 离散事件仿真

Abstract: To improve simulation and prediction of product design project under uncertain environment，latin hypercube sampling was used to sample the uncertain duration of design task.By task segmentation，coupled tasks were decomposed into dependent tasks to reduce problem processing complexity.By considering multi-level rework and rework propagation，iterative process execution model based on dynamic causality diagram was proposed.Discrete event simulation method based on the model was used to conduct project simulation.According to rework decision and control through causal reasoning，concrete algorithm steps were also presented.Simulation analysis and examples were performed to illustrate the application of the algorithm.

Key words: product design projects, process simulation, dynamic causality diagram, discrete event simulation