关键词: 性能劣化, 可靠性预测, 原型系统, 数控装备

Abstract: In order to provide rich, accurate and real-time information resources for Numerical Control(NC) machine tool reliability prediction, the performance degradation-based NC machine tool reliability prediction technique and tool were discussed, since performance degradation had some affinity with reliability. First of all, the theory of NC machine tool performance degradation and its reliability prediction was proposed. And then, NC machine tool performance degradation model was constructed using non-stationary auto-regression integrated moving average model to analyze the time-variable characteristics of key performance parameters in the machine tool. Furthermore, a NC machine tool reliability prediction method based on hidden Markov chain model was proposed to reveal the dynamic characteristics of performance condition and the changes of machine tool reliability level. Finally, the prototype software system for NC machine tool reliability prediction was developed. It was significant for machine tool to increase its utilization ratio, reduce its maintenance cost and extend its service life and so on.

Key words: performance degradation, reliability prediction, prototype system, numerical control machine tool, reliability