关键词: 汽车产业链, 三包服务, 汽车配件, 故障规律, 需求预测模型

Abstract: To conduct scientific forecast on the automobile parts in the service collaborative business and accurately plan in automobile industry chain, according to the characteristics and problems of the automobile parts plan in “three guarantees” service, the fault law of the automobile parts and replace relationship between new parts and fault parts were studied, and the forecasting model of automobile parts demands supporting “three guarantees” service based on dynamic fault law was proposed. Then taking the historical data of after-sale service in the automotive industry chain platform as the data source, and on the basis of the solution of the dynamic fault distribution function of the automobile, the proposed model was solved. Finally, the practical application of forecasting model was given and the validity of the model was verified.

Key words: automotive industry chain, “three guarantees” service, automobile parts, fault law, demands forecasting model