关键词: 制造系统, 性能指标, 神经网络集成, 径向基函数网络, 仿真分析

Abstract: In order to predict exactly,an approach for performance index prediction of manufacturing system, which combined simulation analysis and radial basis network model was proposed. After defining and quantizing several performance index of manufacturing system, the influencing factors which were either static or dynamic were analyzed, and the radial basis network prediction model was constructed. The sample data were collected by the simulation process on the Simul 8 platform. Finally, the ensemble neural network was trained by the Bagging approach, by which some key performance index such as the mean throughout time of parts and the utilization ratio of equipments were predicted. The experiment showed that by this method, the satisfactory prediction results of performance index could be obtained rapidly by inputting the values of the dynamic influencing factors. Furthermore, the prediction precision was obviously superior to that of other neural network methods.

Key words: manufacturing system, performance measure, neural network ensemble, radial basis function network, simulation analysis