关键词: 循环物流链, 风险分析, 风险控制策略, 运作参考模型, 效用函数

Abstract: Based on supply chain operational reference model, by adding the reverse manufacturing process and logistics information process, a cycle logistics chain operation reference model was established. Operations and potential risks of the cycle logistics chain were comprehensively analyzed from both positive and reverse tangible logistics process and intangible information process. A risk source analysis of the cycle logistics chain was conducted, and against six major source of risk, some corresponding risk factors were listed. Characteristics of the risk of the cycle logistics chain were described. Then, a framework of risk control system for the cycle logistics chain was presented and some key areas such as risk monitoring, risk identification and risk assessment were discussed, and the utility function was used to formally describe six kinds of risk control strategy. Finally, a mathematical model of the risk control strategy was established, which was expressed as an optimization problem for both the cost of risk control and its utility function. It would be helpful for selecting appropriate risk control strategy and improve the operation efficiency of logistics.

Key words: cycle logistics chain, risk analysis, risk control strategy, operational reference model, utility function