关键词: 风险评价, 计划评审技术, 莫尔法, 当量概率法

Abstract: After analyzing relationships among aviation project risks, an idea of taking the probability of schedule risk as benchmark of project risklevel was proposed. To overcome shortcomings of classical program evaluation technology, based on improvedProgram Evaluation and Review Technology (PERT), a new risk evaluation method was proposed to assess project risk. This method used the Monroe method to estimate probabilitydistribution of important activities and the equivalentweight probability method to amend project duration. Then the probability of project schedule risk was computed based on probability theory, and so successfully gains the project risklevel. Finally, 04segment assembly of some aviation project was provided as an example to demonstrate the general process of risk evaluation.

Key words: risk evaluation, program evaluation review technology, Monroe method, equivalentweight probability method