关键词: 组合方法, 模糊集理论, 关键成功因素, 模糊网络分析法, 定性可能性理论

Abstract: To develop a portfolio approach for evaluating and determining IT investment options, project decision model based on fuzzy set theory was proposed in which fuzzy set was used to depict uncertain project information. Business benefit of IT project was articulated by a Fuzzy Analytic Net Process (FANP) framework integrated with Critical Success Factors (CSFs) which could align enterprises strategy with IT projects. The IT portfolio selection problem was formulated as a fuzzy zeroone integer programming with considerations of project cost/benefits tradeoffs and correlations among projects. A new transformation method based on qualitative possibility theory was developed to convert the fuzzy selection model into a crisp integer programming. Finally, a case was used to illustrate the proposed approach in detail and show how to perform “whatif” analysis.

Key words: portfolio approach, fuzzy set theory, critical success factors, fuzzy analytic net process, qualitative possibility theory